Market cycles, without the predictions

Crypto markets have moved in long swings: extended rises, sharp falls, quiet stretches. Patterns are visible in hindsight. That is not the same as knowing what happens next.

What repeats

• Attention follows price. Interest peaks near tops and vanishes near bottoms.
• Falls are faster than rises. Leverage unwinding is quick.
• Most of the time is unremarkable. The dramatic periods are a small share of the calendar.

What this is worth

Not timing. People who know the pattern still buy high and sell low, because the pattern is clear in a chart and invisible while you are inside it.

What is actually useful

• Decide what you will do before the move, not during it.
• Size positions so a bad outcome is survivable.
• Be suspicious of certainty, especially your own.

For swapping specifically, the practical consequence is narrower: volatility widens spreads and raises fees, so a calm hour is a cheaper hour.